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The result is massive survivorship bias. To demonstrate just how massive the bias is, here are the middle 10 artists of the C50 in 1988, charted against the middle 10 artists of the C50 in 2012: Alexander Calder, Damien Hirst, Roy Lichtenstein, Joan Mitchell, Pierre Soulages, Wang Guangyi, Christopher Wool, Rudolf Stingel, Liu Xiaodong, and Liu Wei. You can see that the current members of the index, had you bought them back in 1988, would have performed spectacularly well. The performance of the C50, then, is largely a function of the fact that hot artists keep on getting added — after they’ve become hot. It’s a classic case of investing with hindsight: if you only bought things which performed extremely well, then you would have made lots of money. Well, thanks for that.

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